The Global Warming Hypothesis

I have not yet decided what to make of the recent debate concerning 'Global Warming'.

I describe it as a 'debate' but it seems to me to be rapidly becoming more akin to a dogma.

It seems that one is supposed to accept as a given, the proposition that the planet is 'heating up' and that it is largely due to human activity. There is also a strong hint of moral indignation in the air.

Now before anyone pitches into me for being complacent, let me make it clear that I accept that it is probably not a good idea for us to continue to pump out carbon dioxide plus other gases into the atmosphere. However, I have a suspicion that the situation is a lot more involved than some people are making out.

The planet started getting warmer 15 000 years or so ago, when the polar ice caps started to retreat. This was after an 'ice age' which began about 1.5 million years ago. So the present period of 'global warming' has been going on for quite some time. Within this period there have been several 'little ice ages' with very abrupt changes in climate.

Some people, particularly those from within the 'environmental movement' are inclined to imply that the natural world is a wonderfully balanced system. They tend to take the view that it is only the hubris of human beings which is causing problems. If only we would mend our ways and respect 'mother nature', all would be well.

I cannot help feeling, in view of the evidence I have seen, that this is a somewhat naive view of things. Mother nature appears to be just as capable of being a 'bitch' as she is of being a nurturing goddess of ancient wisdom!

The other thing which concerns me is the tendency to try to prove the case for 'global warming' by merely accumulating evidence in favor of it.
The trouble with this approach is that it is possible to 'prove' just about any hypothesis using the method of building up a dossier of 'evidence' in favor of it.

Indeed, this is exactly what cranks the world over do, when they want to 'prove' that we are being visited by aliens or being run by a secret 'shadow' government etc

As the late and great Karl Popper pointed out, the real strength of a scientific theory is its ability to stand up to the destructive testing of the underlying hypothesis.

This principle is even applied to the criminal law, whereby the onus of proof lies with the prosecution. They have to prove their case against the destructive testing of the defense. If the defense succeed in raising a 'reasonable doubt' about the prosecutions case, the case is judged to be unsound.

It seems to me that there is very little attempt to really test the hypothesis which we are being presented with, when it comes to 'global warming'. Instead we are treated to a series of images, isolated facts, spurious statistics and moral admonishments. This is perhaps understandable from the popular media but really quite unforgivable from scientists.

We do need to understand the dynamics of our climate. Our survival has always depended on both our ability to adapt to the environment, coupled with a facility to create artificial environments to protect us from the natural one.

All I ask is that we try to be objective about this. The present tendency is to try to create a sort of religion based upon a form of nature worship. This 'new age' religion is dressed up in an apparently scientific guise but is mostly humbug.

Human beings should not have to keep saying 'pardon me for existing'. We have a right to be here, the planet is not as benign as some people make it out to be and we need to be objective in our approach.

That does not mean that I do not appreciate the beauty of the planet. I do not have a car and walk down a lovely country lane to work, every morning. I live in a small semi-detached house and do not fly out on 'package holidays' at every opportunity.

I try to do my bit to be 'kind to the environment' but I am not prepared to go along with the nonsense which the popular media comes out with. I am also suspicious of scientists who make little effort to test their ideas against reality and who try to make a religion out of natural phenomena.

If the climate does go haywire, we are going to need all the common sense we can muster. I just hope that there will be enough of it left...